The Uniqueness of the Serbian Aviation Experts

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One does not get many chances to use ‘Serbian’ and ‘aviation experts’ in the same sentence without a dose of sarcasm or irony.It is a public secret that people in charge of Serbian aviation are usually there as a form of reward for their stellar and uncompromising allegiance to their political party. To be fair, political appointments do not represent the sole mechanism for employment since nepotism seems to be just as popular.

Though political appointments and nepotism are present in all societies of this world, the fact that this occurs in Serbia should come as no surprise. However, it seems that these practices are rooted so deeply within the Serbian mentality that qualified people are left with no other choice but to choose between emigration and working for a pathetic salary where career advances are not based on merit. Since most talented and competent Serbs seek ways to emigrate, the local aviation business is run by people who are there just because working for the national carrier (or any other government institution) beats being unemployed. Before continuing any further, I would like to emphasise that this trend does not apply to those who operate or service the aircraft but rather to those who are responsible for the management of the aviation business in the country.

Since 2000, when democracy replaced authoritarianism, little has been done to prepare the Serbian industry, especially the national carrier, for the unavoidable liberalization of the aviation market.

Both the airport and the national carrier saw a succession of ‘experts’ lead the Serbian aviation forward into regional leadership (we are still waiting for them to tell us what region they actually meant).

In May 2012 Serbia held national elections where a new coalition was formed. Everyone was anxious to find out what the new government coalition planned for Jat Airways and if their policies would bring about a change.

Beating all expectations the new government formed a task group, made up of experts, who were supposed to come up with a plan which would revitalize the national carrier and, according to the minister of transport, reduce the losses so that the airline might manage to just about break even.

In theory, this solution is simple and effective.

However, the only problem is that the experts in this group were either political puppets or pilots.

For the airline to be restored to profitability unpopular measures had to be introduced so as to reduce costs. Political puppets would be unaware of this necessity as most of them are unfamiliar with the strategies employed within this particular field. However, it is highly likely that pilots would be aware of the necessity of these measures, as they are familiar with the working conditions of their colleagues who  fly for low cost airlines or other legacy carriers which previously undertook these measures. Without doubt the pilots would ignore these harsh measures in order to preserve their perks and benefits.

A positive outcome from the work of this task force is that they have concluded that Jat Airways needs to reduce its workforce by at least a half. Though we can partially give them credit for their conclusion, one should not have high expectations as even politicians have made similar statements in the past. At this point it has become quite clear that we should not expect any fundamental changes within the airline as nothing seems to have changed from the previous times when ‘experts’ were called in to save the day.

Another positive outcome from this whole story is that these ‘experts’ have agreed to put forward a fleet renewal plan. However, a country like Serbia, which seems to be determined to join the European Union, has failed to embrace the notion of transparency. The whole process has been cloaked in mystery and kept away from the public eye. Only vague information has been leaked to the public revealing absolutely nothing.

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So what is the actual problem?

There are two major chronic problems with Jat Airways which will will continue to cripple it in the future. The first is the very organization of the airline, while the second is, once again, its fleet.

The airline plans on reducing its workforce by almost 50%, which should reduce its losses, but will not solve its long-term problems.

So what are these long-term problems Jat is facing? The first is that the carrier needs to decide what kind of market it wants to serve. Will it aim at catering for the needs of the point to point travellers or will it attempt to transform its Belgrade hub into a true Balkan crossroad? Until now, the abrupt liberalization of the Serbian market and the failure of various governments to prepare the national carrier for the transitional shock have forced the national carrier to mutate into some sort of a hybrid carrier which is stuck between two worlds.

Jat tries to compete with low cost carriers (most notably Wizz Air) by offering competitive fares with an uncompetitive cost structure. Though this might have a positive impact on the average load factor, it has the exact opposite impact on the airline’s finances. Without the much needed autonomy, the airline was (and still is) unable to take the adequate measures which only increased its losses and its debt.

Government officials stated on numerous occasions that they have no intent to turn Jat Airways into a low cost carrier. This means that Jat Airways has to keep its level of service equal to that offered by legacy carriers but at the same time it has to have a relatively low cost structure which will enable it to compete against the low cost carriers.

Though this is relatively difficult to achieve it is far from being impossible. The most important thing for Jat Airways to do is to revise its regional network by taking into consideration the state of its fleet and what it can do with it.

Its regional network will not only cater for the needs of the point to point passengers but it should be organized in such a way that it allows onward connections in Belgrade through the creation of several waves of departures.

The Balkan Peninsula is very competitive in terms of the number of carriers which are based there. Therefore Jat must optimize its performance within its regional network. First step would be to designate its regional zone as the one that stretches within a 500 nautical mile (nm) radius from its base at Belgrade airport. When competing with the Dash-8, on flights within this area, the Atr is incomparably more profitable. Problems arise on flights that exceed this distance as the Atr is simply not built for similar missions. Beyond the 500 nm radius the speed of the Dash becomes its biggest attribute while at the same time its more comfortable cabin improves the overall passenger experience.

Once the radius and the equipment have been defined, Jat needs to evaluate all possible means on how to offer competitive fares and still make a profit.

The simplest solution would be to divide its fleet into a mainline division and a regional one. The regional one would be comprised of Atrs where both the flight deck and cabin crew would sign separate contracts which would be similar to those used by (ultra?) low cost carriers. Though these contracts might be unattractive for the employees (when compared to the present) they need to enable the airline to engage in price wars so as to beat its competition – especially when facing airlines from its surrounding region which will most likely try to attract the same passengers as Jat. For example, on flights from Belgrade to Montenegro Jat currently needs at least €90 per passenger in order to break even. Its competition, Montenegro Airlines, operates a mixture of Embraer and Fokker jets which are much less efficient on such a short flight. By restructuring the airline and by separating the regional from the mainline fleet, Jat will be able to lower its fares to about €40/50 and still make a profit. This would eventually hurt Montenegro Airlines who will be forced into a pricing war it cannot win. This regional branch could either be a subdivision of the national carrier or a totally new airline which would take over all regional routes from Jat leaving it to operate from Belgrade to all destinations located outside the domestic sphere. The latter solution might be a more favourable one so that neither one of the two companies drains the other financially. It is always better to have two independent carriers operating within their own respective markets.

Though this light cost structure might encourage the management of the airline to expand rapidly, it is wiser to preserve a more conservative approach and expand within regional markets which have a considerable point to point traffic. This means that routes such as Podgorica, Tivat, Ljubljana, Sarajevo, Skopje, Thessaloniki, Ohrid, Dubrovnik and Pula should be considered as primary destinations which should be operated at least daily. Secondary cities such as Sofia, Banja Luka, Varna or Bucharest should be launched three times per week and special attention should be dedicated to these markets so as to develop point to point traffic which should act as a safety net once a more aggressive approach is taken when connections are added to the business equation.

Road and rail transport throughout the Balkans is bad, while its future improvement will be made difficult by the mountainous terrain. Jat Airways needs to use this to its advantage and attract passengers who would otherwise take a bus or train to reach any destination within this region.

Building a network to feed the flights of the mainline division is not enough; the airline needs to find its own market which will be served between the mainline waves of departures. In my opinion the airline should propose a new project entitled ‘Belgrade, a Balkan crossroad’ where it would provide connections for intra-Balkan flights. This programme could make certain routes profitable that otherwise would not be so. A good example of this is the flight from Belgrade to Zagreb. Due to good road infrastructure between the two cities most people opt to travel by car or bus. However, by establishing this route in the post-reorganization period it could feed the mainline’s waves of departures but more importantly it could also offer connections to the regional flights out of Belgrade. Just before the crisis there were roughly 20 passengers flying between Zagreb and Bucharest. Since this route would not be profitable for either Croatia Airlines or Tarom people travelling between the two cities have to either travel by road (which requires crossing several borders) or fly via an alternative hub. If Jat could manage to capture this market (and due to its geographical location it could), it would mean that on a daily basis it could fill 30% of its Zagreb flight with passengers connecting onwards to Bucharest.

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In order for this plan to be successful, careful planning and a light cost structure would need to be set in place. Fleet commonality is paramount hence the reason the fleet should be comprised of Atr 72-500s.

This is naturally a simplified explanation of what is needed for Jat to have even a remote chance of surviving. This is why the work done by the so-called experts should be disregarded since they will only reduce the negative effects but will not solve the actual problem.

If the restructuring plan proposed by the task group does take place then Jat will have a young fleet of regional aircraft, but at the same time this fleet will be operated by an expensive crew (and a generally expensive cost structure). Therefore the problems faced by the airline will simply persist under another guise. At this point the carrier will be left with two choices: either to reduce or to increase its fares.  The first option will attract more passengers, which should work, but at the same it will make the airline bleed money; or the latter choice resulting in increasing its fares beyond rational levels, serving only to tarnish its image among the travelling public. This second choice would  create the perception that, no matter what, Jat Airways will always be the most expensive option.

The fact that this group of ‘experts’ have yet to propose fundamental changes within the airline only goes to prove that they lack the basic knowledge of the aviation business.

 

To be continued…

The Jat saga (Part 2)

 

In the previous thread we looked at the current situation in Jat Airways. We tried to understand why the airline is where it is today by looking at its past and its present. I would love to look into Jat’s future. However I am very afraid of what I might see there, or for that matter, not see!

 

Trying to save Jat is about the same as trying to save a sinking boat. There are so many things that need fixing but not enough time to do it properly.

 

 

In today’s post I will look at Jat Airways and its operations to the Asian continent. By looking at their current operations in that region I will endeavour to see what needs to be done to ensure its survival.

There are two words which should scare Jat: Qatar Airways. Actually, in order for the management of Jat Airways to be afraid of the airline they would need to be aware of its existence. Some time ago I had the (dis)pleasure of talking to one of Jat’s board members, who didn’t know that Singapore Airlines was rated as the best airline in the world. Not to mention that he couldn’t even list the highest ranking airlines in the world.

The reason I mention Qatar Airways is because they are the only threat to Jat’s service to Dubai. Currently Jat operates three flights per week to Dubai using a B737-300 with a stop in Larnaca. Such a long flight can be exhausting on a plane like the 737 (old generation) whose interiors are outdated, offer no in-flight entertainment, and provide mediocre on-board service at best…

The only reason Jat has managed to survive in this market for so long is thanks to the interline agreement with Emirates.

Qatar Airways has been aggressively expanding in Europe. They have been opening new routes from its ever growing hub in Doha to places such as Barcelona and Copenhagen.

Recently the airline announced the opening of routes from Doha to Oslo and Sofia; the latter will pose an indirect threat to Jat.

Qatar announced that the flights to Sofia would operate 4 times per week via Bucharest. Currently this route  is operated via Budapest, however the latter has proven to be a profitable destination in its own right, and as such will be operated directly. With service to cities like Sofia, Bucharest and Budapest the next logical step would be the announcement of Belgrade.

Serbia is an important market for Emirates as it uses Jat to feed its flights on Asian and Australian routes.

A few years ago when the deal with Emirates and Jat Airways was abruptly terminated the Serbian airline was forced to relocate its flights to Abu Dhabi. Shortly after this event Emirates renegotiated the deal with Jat whose withdrawal from Dubai had caused a decrease in Emirates’ loads on the routes to Australia.

If Qatar Airways were to enter the Serbian market I believe it would signal the end of Jat’s service to Dubai.

There are two reasons for this theory. Firstly, the Qatar Airways on board product is far superior to that of Jat Airways. Not to mention that Qatar’s flight would be operated directly non-stop, making it far more attractive.

Secondly, Qatar Airways is an airline whose main priority is not to make profit. With state support they can enter a price war with Jat Airways driving it into major losses resulting in suspension of the route.

With Qatar’s flights perfectly timed for connections to both Asian and Australian destinations this will not only hurt Jat but will not go unnoticed by Emirates. When Jat Airways transferred their flights to Abu Dhabi the Gulf carrier demonstrated how important the Serbian market is for them. One reason why Emirates negotiated with Jat was probably because FlyDubai was not then set up and Belgrade, as a market, was far from ready to handle Emirates.

 

If the above mentioned scenario does take place, what reaction can we expect from Emirates? They are definitely not going to rely on Jat to save the day or launch the route with their own metal, mostly because their smallest aircraft is way too big for Belgrade. Let’s not forget that Qatar’s smallest aircraft that could operate this route is an A319 whereas Emirates would have to use their A330-200.

 

What Emirates might do is strike back by launching Dubai-Belgrade on their lowcost subsidiary, FlyDubai. By using a B737-800 they could compete perfectly with Qatar’s capacity on the route.

 

 

 

While these two mega-carriers would fight each other Jat would have no other choice but to leave the market.

 

 

 

 

Jat’s troubles in the Dubai market are nothing new. They began when Turkish Airlines launched flights to Belgrade, offering convenient connections via Istanbul, using new aircraft and providing excellent service.

So what can Jat do in order to prevent its total collapse in this market? In order for them to even consider surviving on the route they need to launch direct flights and cut out Larnaca.

This can be achieved in two ways, either by acquiring new generation aircraft such as B737-7/800 (Airbus A320 series) or by finding a solution in the old generation market.

The only adequate,old generation plane is the Boeing B757-200. Even if this plane is considered too big for the airline on this route, it will most definitely increase its chances when faced with competition from Turkish Airlines.

If the airline does decide to go with the B757 then the timing must be right. The aircraft needs to be introduced into service in early May, just before the summer rush. Their Dubai flights must be perfectly timed with regional arrivals in order to secure additional feed.

After returning from Dubai the aircraft could be used to operate summer charter flights. By using the B757 on charters it will free some of its B737s to strengthen its scheduled services. For example instead of operating 4 daily flights to Antalya the airline could operate two flights with the B757.

If the airline does decide to go with the new generation models then it should definitely go with Boeing. However if Jat opts for Airbus it will result in extra expenses from introducing a new type of aircraft and in training its crew. But this will mean that it will have two aircraft types in its fleet; something that most airlines are advised against on the grounds of fleet commonality.

If the airline decides to go with new generation aircraft it can lease either a Boeing 737-800 or -700 for the route, in which case the same operational strategy as with the 757 (mentioned above) could be applied. However the 737 could be used on the more competitive European routes. The older B737s can be used for charter flights. The only problem is that the new generation aircraft are more expensive and not that easy to find, especially now when the economy is picking up and airlines are adding capacity.

I believe that Jat Airways should not focus too much attention on acquiring new generation aircraft, at least not for the time being. They should not start to introduce new generation aircraft until they are sufficiently stable to retire their entire old generation fleet. European airlines with this policy include Norwegian who just recently started replacing their B737-300s with new generation B737-800s. Other airlines include airBaltic from Latvia, Aerosvit from Ukraine and Lot from Poland.

In conclusion, Jat Airways desperately needs to revise its strategy in Dubai. Through the interline agreement with Emirates it has access to Asia, Africa and Oceania. It is unacceptable for the management not to seize this opportunity and use it to their own benefit.

In my opinion the airline should go with the B757 simply due to its availability and reliability; not to mention greater comfort on this 6 hour flight. For now the airline needs to concentrate on regaining those passengers lost to Turkish Airlines. In order to achieve this Jat must change and regain the confidence of its passengers.

Unfortunately, I fear that Jat’s present management will neglect the growing threat from the Gulf region. Eventually Qatar Airways will launch flights from Doha, thus destroying Jat Airways. The government will announce that the airline is reporting growing losses and that a new CEO should be appointed. A new CEO will be announced, either a member of  the ruling political party (naturally with no experience in the aviation business), or someone who once worked as a check-in agent and advanced overnight to a high-ranking position!

This vicious cycle will continue until one of the oldest airlines in the world (founded 1927) will be destroyed by the incompetence of its own people.

 

 

The Jat saga continues…at least for now.